Will Admiral Follow It’s Annual Trend & Grow 10% Over The Next 3 months?

The Admiral Group (ADM:LSE) is a FTSE 100 company with insurance brands such as Admiral and comparison sites such as confused.com.  We’ve looked back at the Admiral Group share prices over the past 15 years and there are some strong trends. We pulled the daily closing prices for the last 15 years and graphed it.

Admiral Group Share Price Annual Trend

Data Source: Investing.com

As you can see from above there is a clear trend for growth in the early months of the year. Looking at the average stats the biggest increase can be found from approximately the 7th January until 23rd April. We have then dug a bit deeper and analysed the last 5 years, which produce the following table. (please note these are figures for the closing price only and don’t take in the buy/sell difference in price. If the 7th January/23rd April wasn’t a trading day then we have taken the previous trading days price).

Jan 7th Apr 23rd Growth % Growth
2015 1,226.80 1,505.06 278.26 22.7%
2016 1,654.38 1,813.80 159.42 9.6%
2017 1,862.00 2,007.00 145.00 7.8%
2018 1,872.00 1,998.00 126.00 6.7%
2019 1,979.50 2,242.00 262.50 13.3%
Average 12.0%

There’s definitely a bit of variation here, but every year in the past 5 has been positive. In the last 5 years as well the average difference has increased to 12%.

Will Admiral Follow It’s Annual Trend & Grow in 2020?

Certainly trading off annual trends alone is a very risky strategy. Previous performance can not be taken as a predictor for certain future performance. There are so many opinions on trading with technical analysis and fundamental analysis and we just wanted to provide you with a strong annual trend. So if you do trade or invest in this, you’ll have to do your own research.

In our opinion it’s a good idea to find information from a variety of sources.

Looking at a few of the most recent figures (2nd January 2020) stated on ADVFN in our opinion there are arguments for and against the strength of the company. However we would analyse these in full for a long term investment. In this blog post we are talking about a short term price movement. Therefore we are just making sure that the company is overall in good shape.

Key Figures

P/E Ratio: 16.83 (some consider anything under 20 to still be ok value)
EPS Growth Rate: 16.98% (A strong figure)
PEG Factor: 1.00 (neither overvalued, nor undervalued)

Investment Ratios
ROCE: 7.05% (For a long term investment this should be over 12)
ROE: 52% (Again over 12% is strong)

Financial & Debt Ratios

Current ratio: 35.86 (over 1 is fully covered)
Quick Ratio: 35.68 (over 1 is fully covered)
Debt/Pre-Tax Profit: 12.67 (Not ideal. We don’t like anything over 5)
3 year Compound Earnings Growth: 20.32%

Cash
The 31 Dec 2018 report shows positive cash flow. It also has 5.54% in cash.

Admiral Group plc Interim results
On 14th August Admiral released interim results. It’s difficult to get an exact picture from interim results, although at a glance generally figures are improving.

Technical Indicators

If you believe that technical indicators are useful, then you may well not see this as a strong buy opportunity. The current ADM price is at a long term high.
Moving Averages: Price is near the upper bollinger band and above the 200 and 100 Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). The shorter term averages largely crossed over the longer term averages several weeks ago.
MACD: The signal line is below the MACD line (Some consider a trading signal when the signal line crosses the MACD)
RSI: Currently at 76 , which is considered overbought.

Please note: money s&i may not have positions in the shares mentioned. Stats are created by us to the best of our ability and figures are found on what we deem to be reliable information. Everything we publish is thoroughly researched. We present financial and investment information and will on occasion express our opinion on these. The information provided throughout our website is not and cannot ever be intended either as investment, financial, tax, legal advice or otherwise.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *